Looking for this World Cup’s ‘Group of Death’? It doesn’t exist anymore. Here’s why…

Whenever the draw for the World Cup is completed, the immediate task is to find out which is the “group of death”.

But the boring answer is that it generally doesn’t exist today. A change in the structure of the tournament means that the four main contenders are less likely to be combined.

This World Cup, however, is a bit special. To explain why, here’s a brief history of how the party of death gradually took off.

There are three aspects to the game. The first reason is the expansion of competition.

The phrase “group of death” was first coined in 1970, when there were only 16 teams in the competition. (Since 1982 there have been 24 teams, since 1998 there have been 32, and since 2026 there have been 48.)

As a result, the quality has decreased. For this tournament, 50 percent of the sides will not even qualify for the tournament if the concept of “group of death” is drawn at the first specified time.

The number of opponents in each World Cup is the same; around eight to 10 have a real chance of winning the competition. They used to be divided into four, then they were divided into six, and now they are eight. The chances of having two — or even three — in the same group became less and less.

The second factor increases the spread of different confederations. This is not the same as simply expanding the competition.

Historically, the main contenders for the World Cup have come almost exclusively from Europe and South America.

No African country has ever qualified for the semi-finals. No team from Oceania has ever made it to the quarter-finals. Only one Asian side has reached the semifinals — South Korea on home soil in 2002. And only one North American side has reached the semifinals, the United States in 1930.

England’s Bobby Charlton fights Brazil’s Clodoaldo in the original ‘Group of Death’ in 1970 (Image: Syndication/Mirrorpix via Getty Images)

And although the South American continent has gradually increased for each competition, in line with the number of countries in general, the European quota is not.

FIFA has prioritized regional representation over direct quality. This, in fact, a the world Cup. But it also means that the overall quality is weaker; this means that Italy does not qualify after joining Saudi Arabia and Tunisia. That’s entirely fair, but it’s also fair to say that the reigning European champions would be the more obvious candidates in the group of potential losers.

Indeed, the highest death toll in a major tournament was not at the World Cup, but at Euro ’96. It featured Germany (world number two), Russia (third), Italy (seventh) and the Czech Republic (10th), and also produced the last two winners.

The third factor, and perhaps the most important, is the sprinkler system.

Let’s go back to the first group that died in 1970. It was no coincidence that the World Cup was held in 1970, but not in 1962 or 1966. For both tournaments, the draw was selected. . But when no seeding agreement was reached before 1970, that draw was left open.

The result? The last two winners of the tournament, England and Brazil, were drawn in the same group, along with 1962 runners-up Czechoslovakia. Romania had little to fear in terms of popularity, although they beat Czechoslovakia and lost to England and Brazil by single points, barely relegating them. FIFA is determined not to allow this to happen again and every draw since then has been decided.

The seeding has different forms, but the system that we are used to is included in Pot 1 consisting of the strongest side according to the world ranking (plus the host), and everyone else is placed in the pot geographically (but not further sorted by order).

Therefore, one group could keep the first place, plus the strong European, the strong South American and the strong African, although all are included in the first 16 countries of the tournament.

This system was used until 2014. From 2018, everything changed. Today the draw is selected worldwide, and pots are determined by world ranking rather than geography.

This means that the deadliest group in the 2018 World Cup was less lethal than in previous years. In fact, the third strongest mortal group is weaker than the fourth strongest mortal group in the previous competition, according to the world ranking.

There is an added complication to the 2022 World Cup, however – indicated by that asterisk.

With some games postponed due to the pandemic – and the war delaying Ukraine’s matches against Scotland and Wales – the draw for the 2022 World Cup was made before we knew profile of the three teams because they did not play the game. game. Therefore, these play-off games are placed in Pot 4, regardless of their order.

It was most prominent in the case of Wales, who beat Ukraine to get their place. If this play-off had been made before the draw, Wales’ 18th place would have put them through for Pot 3 (and, yes, for Pot 2 if it weren’t for the hosts No. 51 Qatar automatically in Pot 1) . They were in Pot 4 instead.

So whatever group Wales are in will be tougher than FIFA originally thought. They were joined by England (ranked fifth), the United States (15th), and Iran (21st). Which may not sound like much compared to, say, 1970, but it’s actually stronger than anything four years ago — and that’s without taking into account the rivalry between England and Wales. and tensions between the United States and Iran.

Whether you think the group is dead is a matter of opinion. But it could be deadlier than any World Cup group we’ll see again thanks to the expansion to a 48-team World Cup from 2026, along with geographical spread.

FIFA plans to organize the tournament for 48 teams using 16 groups of three, with two teams in the knockout stages. This has two implications for the group of people who may die.

First, on the (highly unlikely) assumption that the tournament consists of the world’s top 48 sides and that the draw is drawn from end to end, each group will include the 33rd-ranked or lower. In all probability, once you count the quotas from each confederation, it seems more likely that the average number of Pot 3 sides will be in the 50s or 60s.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, when two out of three of each group advance, things are less deadly. A 67 percent chance of progress does not feel dangerous. By 2026, the concept of the group of death will die out completely.

(Photo by Marcio Machado/Eurasia Sports Images/Getty Images)